miramichileader.com - Breaking News, New Brunswick, Canada

New Libs on the Bloc

“Liberals tend to lose their minds when they are out of power for more than one election cycle…” Andrew Potter, MacLean’s, December 1, 2008

Crossposted -Spink About It

Poking the language bear

How to set back English-French Relations 101.

Crossposted - Spink About It

Carmel Robichaud sent to the bleachers

I’m hearing a lot of lamenting today about not enough female representation in the Liberal Cabinet. Fair enough, but there aren’t that many female MLA’s to choose from nor do I think that someone should be given a golden ticket to Cabinet based on nothing but the fact that they’re a woman, man, black, white, Catholic, Protestant, and the list goes on. That’s ridiculous. Just because you happen to be a certian gender, ethinicity, etc. doesn’t make you a good Minister.

Carmel Robichaud is a prime example. She made 101 people who are screwing up Canada for good reason and frankly she still owes an apology to New Brunswickers for her lax attitude towards penalties for drunk drivers.

Granted, that’s not the reason she got the boot from Cabinet today but we’re all better for her being sent to the backbenches. She wasn’t a good Minister and Shawn Graham knows it or he would have kept her.

It’s rare I’ll root for the NDP but next election hopefully NDP Leader Roger Duguay trounces Robichaud.

Crossposted -Spink About It

One less voice

According to my blogging colleague, Gypsy Blog, the Carleton Free Press in Woodstock is no more (he works there so he should know),

It’s too bad. We seriously need more voices in media not less. That doesn’t mean government has to step in and force it as some have suggested but competition is a positive thing. A good product is a good product. If someone can provide it that good product, people will buy it. Admittedly though it is tougher when you’re going up against an established product run by folks with deep pockets.

Still, running a second weekly in a small market like Woodstock was bound to be difficult from the get go. Unfortunate in two respects. One for the workers of the Free Press and two, others may be less likely to venture against the Irving owned newspapers in other markets. That’s too bad, because Moncton for one could seriously use some competition.

Crossposted- Spink About It

That’s loser talk

I’ve heard and read a number of Liberals, NDP and Green Party members lamenting about the results of the election and pointing out the fact that more people didn’t vote for the Conservatives than did.

All true.

What the journalists interviewing these party members are leaving out though is the obvious follow up question, “Uh, Mr./Mrs. Liberal/NDP/Green, more people didn’t vote for you than did too, in fact even more so.”

No such question though.

Odd.

Crossposted - Spink About It

New Brunswick's results

Tobique-Mactaquac - Mike Allen (Conservative)
Fredericton - Keith Ashfield (Conservative)
Fundy Royal - Rob Moore (Conservative)
New Brunswick Southwest - Greg Thompson (Conservative)
Miramichi - Tilly O'Neill-Gordon (Conservative)
Saint John - Rodney Weston (Conservative)

Madawaska-Restigouche - Jean-Claude D'Amours (Liberal)
Beausejour - Dominic Leblanc (Liberal)
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe - Brian Murphy (Liberal)

Acadie-Bathurst - Yvon Godin (NDP)

Spinks election predictor - 7-3

Surprises?

Miramichi comes as a surprise but as mentioned here and by other pundits, the proposed Liberal carbon tax was a killer that even the popular Charles Hubbard couldn't sell. Impressive night for the Conservatives in New Brunswick.

Crossposted -Spink About It

Saint John

Predicted winner – Conservative

In 2004, Liberal MP Paul Zed was effective in getting the message out to voters that they should have a Member of Parliament who was in government. He picked up the seat by about 3500 votes. In ’06 he went back in but his lead shrunk to about 1500 votes.

In this election, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that the Conservatives will be back in power, it’s just a matter of whether they have a majority or a minority. With former PC MLA Rodney Weston carrying the Conservative banner, people may decide they want to have an MP on the government side.

Paul Zed has been regarded as a decent MP for the area but the Liberals carbon tax proposal hasn’t exactly been embraced with open arms in this area where energy and the Irvings are dominant players. The Green Shift promises to chew in to any lead Zed once enjoyed.

X-Factor – Saint Johners have no problem not voting for government. In 1993, when the Progressive Conservatives were decimated, Saint John was one of two ridings in the country that voted in a PC (although it was Elsie Wayne who probably could have run for the Rhino Party and won the seat) and kept it Tory for two more elections when Liberal majorities reigned.

Crossposted - Spink About It

Fredericton

Predicted winner – Liberal

This should have been the election for the Conservatives in Fredericton. Liberal Andy Scott called it quits after holding the riding for 15 years in what had previously long been a traditional Tory seat, theoretically making the seat ripe for the taking. The Tories however picked New Maryland Progressive Conservative MLA Keith Ashfield to carry the banner. When he won the nomination, part of the reason he was able to secure fellow candidate William Forestall’s supporters votes was a statement that he was pro-life (IE : not a supporter of abortion). That didn’t mean he was actually going to do anything about it in Parliament (nobody does) but that was his personal view. Yet when he had a chance to express that personal view when asked on CBC Radio locally (every candidate was) he refused to answer. Even Liberal candidate David Innes answered, indicating he was in fact personally against abortion but that was his personal view, not that of the Party. Ashfield effectively alienated social-conservatives while Innes provided himself as an alternative to them (without actually promising to do anything). That’s just one issue but it made Ashfield seem wishy-washy and that he couldn’t take a stand. In a tight race, it may be just enough.

Meanwhile, the Greens have run an extremely strong local campaign for Mary Lou Babineau which will probably place them in third ahead of the NDP. The NDP have had a low-key campaign locally and they’ll suffer for it. So will the Conservatives. Innes is going to be able to grab a lot of soft-right votes and soft-left votes, enough to give him the seat.

X-Factor – Voter apathy will probably affect the Conservatives in this riding more than the Liberals as those who don’t care for Ashfield as their candidate just stay home. The prospect of Stephane Dion as Prime Minister though might make some who wouldn’t vote for Ashfield, hold their nose anyway and vote for the Conservatives. Enough to give them the seat though remains to be seen.

Crossposted - Spink About It

Tobique-Mactaquac

Predicted winner – Conservative

Tobique-Mactaquac stretches from outside the city of Fredericton to just north of the bilingual Town of Grand Falls. Conservative MP Mike Allen won this seat in the 2006 election by a mere 250 or so votes over Liberal Andy Savoy. Savoy himself had first taken the seat from the Progressive Conservatives in 2000 by a mere 150 votes although he increased his vote considerably in 2004 thanks in part to a local riding controversy over who would carry the Conservative banner in the riding.

This time Savoy isn’t running in favour of Stanley teacher Sally McGrath who is largely an unknown in much of the riding. Allen has had two and a half years to establish his name throughout the vast riding (not to mention this being his fourth election). Expect him to win this riding and increase his vote.

X-Factor – The NDP and Greens are relatively weak in this riding, more so than in other N.B. ridings. This is a riding where strategic voting if it were utilized heavily could give the Liberals the seat.

Crossposted - Spink About It

Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe

Predicted winner - Liberal

Liberal Brian Murphy wasn’t able to totally obliterate his opponents like his predecessor Claudette Bradshaw but he still picked up the seat in 2006 by 8500 votes. This time around Conservative Daniel Allain has put up an impressive campaign and will undoubtedly close that gap. Thanks to a strong local Green campaign and a strong national NDP campaign, the gap may not be as much as some think. Still, Murphy will likely still be MP come Wednesday.

X-Factor – Blue Wave. Traditionally, the riding is usually on the government side. If people feel the Conservatives are going into government, they may vote in high enough numbers to give Allain the seat.

Crossposted - Spink About It